Overall temperatures and the number of strong storms is expected to be above average in Maine this growing season, but it’s too early to say exactly how that will affect crops.
Temperatures across the state are predicted to run higher than average in May, June and July, according to the National Weather Service.
The service has moderate to high confidence temperatures will be above average overall in southern Maine and moderate confidence of the same in northern Maine, according to Louise Fode, warning coordination meteorologist in Caribou. The service has not said what specific temperatures might be or how they will be distributed.
Maine growers have navigated challenging growing seasons in recent years, and though it’s possible they will be spared drought or flooding this season, experts recommend keeping an eye on the forecasts.
The prediction of higher than average temperatures doesn’t necessarily mean the daytime will get hotter this year; like in 2023’s growing season, there could be higher night temperatures instead of warmer days, according to Maine’s state climatologist Sean Birkel.
“The probability is just showing there is a greater likelihood of above normal temperatures,” Birkel said. “That doesn’t necessarily mean it will be hot and oppressively humid.”
Precipitation will likely be typical throughout the growing season, possibly a little wetter than usual in late summer, the weather service predicts.
Experts agree hurricane season is likely to be ”very active” this year, though, Birkel said.
“There is elevated risk, and it’s something we need to keep in mind and watch the forecasts throughout the season,” he said.
Surface temperatures on the North Atlantic are still very warm. At the same time, last year’s El Nino weather pattern, one of the strongest on record, is declining and temperatures are becoming neutral in the equatorial Pacific, Birkel said.
During El Nino, strong wind can typically break apart tropical storm systems that form on the Atlantic at the equator, he said. The counterpart weather system La Nina should develop early this summer.
The conditions this year are likely to produce less of that wind, making it more likely for tropical wind storms and hurricanes to develop — potentially up to 23 large Atlantic storms and 11 hurricanes.
There’s no way to say yet how many of those will reach New England, according to Birkel. Tropical storms are best detected on the National Weather Service’s 10-day forecasts.
Hurricanes or not, pressure systems could create more humidity.
If that happens, it could mean more disease developing in plants, according to Caleb Goossen, a crop specialist with the Maine Organic Farmers and Gardeners Association.
Humidity aside, the warmer it is, the faster the plants will grow, Goossen said. Plants do much of their growing at night. If temperatures rise then, they could grow more stressed by respiring longer and using up the sugar they might use for photosynthesis during the day.
When temperatures rise to above 95 degrees Fahrenheit for an extended time, pollen could become sterile in plants like tomatoes and eggplants, meaning they won’t develop fruit.
If it gets hot, keep an eye on watering your crops to help them deal with heat stress, Goossen said. He also recommends that people adjust their work hours to start earlier on hot days.
When selecting seeds, some varieties are better adapted to heat stress than others, he said.
Some garden crops like corn will do well with hot weather, as do others with origins in warmer climates than Maine, like tomatoes and peppers, if diseases and pests are managed.
Colder-weather crops like spinach and brassica family varieties such as cabbage and broccoli could have a difficult time if things get warm.
Those are often grown at the beginning and end of the season elsewhere in the country, while Maine growers could historically grow them throughout the summer, Goossen said.
All kinds of crops could bolt, or flower prematurely, in very hot temperatures, making the plants tough and bitter to eat.
Goossen recommends that growers consider succession planting for their more delicate crops, or starting new plants throughout the season so that fresh seedlings are going into the ground each week.
Correction: An earlier version of this report had inaccurate information on the percentage increase in this year’s summer temperatures. Meteorologists predict temperatures have a higher probability of being above average across the state. It also misspelled Birkel’s name.